Estimating Chinese Trade Relationships with the Silk Road Countries

• DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12145
• Publication Date: 2016-01-18T10:34:29Z
• Authors: E. Mine Cinar; Joseph Johnson; Katherine Geusz
• Keywords: Sample (material)

Abstract In this paper we discuss the extent to which countries in former Silk Road regions are either reaching or failing reach their trading potential with China. We estimate a gravity model of trade using Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimator, and in‐sample, out‐of‐sample counterfactual approaches. compare these three methods for country trades Next, estimated actual trade, find that most underperforming However, performance against improved over years 1990–2013. Our results suggest China's partners have yet realize full benefits economic growth but gap may be narrowing.