Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan, China

• DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12165
• Publication Date: 2013-12-17T11:42:38Z
• Authors: Ming‐Gang Zhang; Zhe‐Kun Zhou; Wen‐Yun Chen; Charles H. Cannon; Niels Raes; J. W. Ferry Slik
• Keywords: Species distribution; Environmental change; Extinction (optical mineralogy)

Abstract Aim A wide range of forests distributed across steep environmental gradients are found in Y unnan, southwest C hina. Climate change could profoundly these by affecting species ranges. We produce predictions about suitable habitat shifts and use to (1) evaluate size change, loss turn‐over under no‐ full‐dispersal nine climate scenarios (2) identify variables responsible for current richness future local losses. Location unnan P rovince, S outhwest Methods Using M ax E nt, we modelled distributions 2319 woody plant species, corrected collecting bias that 1996 had significant spatial association with factors. three G eneral irculation odels ( GCM s: CGCM , CSIRO HADCM 3) the years 2070–2099 (2080s), based on emission each 1b, 2a B 2a), predicted geographic position species. Results Although most were persist within Yunnan, a maximum extinction rate c . 6% extreme scenario, up 1400 (of tested) expected lose more than 30% their scenario. Assuming or unlimited dispersal minimally affected outcomes. Species losses associated increasing temperature variability declining precipitation during dry season. Main conclusions To conserve unnan's flora, management efforts should focus providing elevational migration routes at scales, priority those areas located previously identified conservation hotspots. As almost all show contractions, storage genetic diversity seed banks botanical gardens would be sensible. Yunnan's policy will needed counter negative impacts its flora.