The use of range size to assess risks to biodiversity from stochastic threats

• DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12533
• Publication Date: 2017-01-18T04:19:02Z
• Authors: Nicholas J. Murray; David A. Keith; Lucie M. Bland; Emily Nicholson; Tracey J. Regan; Jon Paul Rodríguez; Michael Bedward
• Keywords: Occupancy; Extinction (optical mineralogy)

Abstract Aim Stochastic threats such as disease outbreak, pollution events, fire, tsunami and drought can cause rapid species extinction ecosystem collapse. The ability of a or to persist after stochastic threat is strongly related the extent spatial pattern its geographical distribution. Consequently, protocols for assessing risks biodiversity typically include geographic range size criteria from threats. However, owing in part rarity events nature, metrics risk categories have never been tested. In this study, we investigate performance alternative metrics, including two most widely used, occurrence ( EOO ) area occupancy AOO ), predictors collapse landscapes subject Methods We developed spatially explicit simulation model impacts four types on dataset 1350 simulated distributions varying size. empirically estimated probability response each type evaluated set predict risk. Results increased rapidly declined. While were important three included our (circle, swipe cluster), core area, patch density mean better edge effect Main conclusions Our study first quantitatively assess employed assessment protocols. show that current methods measuring are best estimating framework delivers an objective hitherto untested but used measures assessment.