Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change

• DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12898
• Publication Date: 2019-02-07T04:40:21Z
• Authors: Rajapandian Kanag...; Miguel B. Araujo; Rathin Barman; Priya Davidar; Rahul De; Dinesh K. Digal; G. V. Gopi; A. J. T. Johnsingh; Kashmira Kakati; Stephanie Kramer‐...; Babu R. Lamichhane; Salvador Lyngdoh; M. D. Madhusudan; Muneer Ul Islam N...; Jyotirmayee Parida; Narendra M. B. Pr...; Jean‐Philippe Puy...; R. Raghunath; P. P. Abdul Rahim; K. Muthamizh Selvan; Naresh Subedi; Antonio Trabucco; Swati Udayraj; Thorsten Wiegand; Amirtharaj C. Wil...; Surendra P. Goyal
• Keywords: Species distribution; Global Change

Abstract Aim Climate change alters the water cycle, potentially affecting distribution of species. Using an ensemble species models (SDMs), we predicted changes in Asian elephant South Asia due to increasing climatic variability under warming climate and human pressures. Location India Nepal. Methods We compiled a comprehensive geodatabase 115 predictor variables, which included climatic, topographic, pressures land use, at resolution 1 km 2 , extensive database on current elephants. For variable selection, first developed 14 candidate based different hypotheses habitat selection. each model, series 240 individual were evaluated using several metrics. three one use datasets for two greenhouse gas scenarios, SDMs used predict future projections. Results Nine variables selected SDMs. Elephant is driven predominantly by balance (>60%), followed temperature human‐induced disturbance. The results suggest that around 41.8% 256,518 available present will be lost end this century combined effects pressure. Projected loss higher human‐dominated sites lower elevations intensifying droughts, leading elephants seek refuge along valleys with greater availability Himalayan Mountains. Main conclusions Changes could play crucial role driving distributions regions monsoonal climates. In response, would shift their range upwards gradients seasonal droughts. Conservation management populations global should include design movement corridors enable dispersal other associated more conducive environments.