Three hundred years of past and future changes for native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin—Historical flow alterations versus future climate change

• DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13808
• Publication Date: 2024-01-16T07:51:41Z
• Authors: Martin Friedrichs...; Simone D. Langhans; Florian Borgwardt; Thomas Hein; Harald Kling; Philipp Stanzel; Sonja C. Jähnig; Sami Domisch
• Keywords: Vulnerability; Environmental change

Abstract Aim Rivers belong to the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Historical anthropogenic alterations have, and future climate change will further affect rivers species therein. While many studies have projected effects species, little is known about severity of these changes compared historical alterations. Here, we used a unique 300‐year time series hydrological data explore vulnerability 48 native fish in upper Danube River Basin past potential environmental changes. Location Upper Basins (Germany Austria). Methods We applied niche factor analysis calculated species‐specific estimates based modelled observed from 1800 2100. estimated vulnerabilities between two intervals (1800–1830 1900–1930) interval (2070–2100, including representative concentration pathways 4.5 8.5) an reference (1970–2000). In addition, identified main drivers their over 200 years for predicted 100 future. Results Our results showed that (i) past, was mainly driven by discharge, while (ii) would be due temperature. Moreover, found (iii) conditions riverine temperature at similar magnitude as changes, river Future RCP 4.5, result moderate vulnerability, whereas 8.5, all substantially increase conditions. Main Conclusion Accounting extended timeline uncovers extent pressures provides unprecedented opportunities proactively plan conservation strategies are necessary address challenges.