What Is the Future of the Atlantic Surfclam (Spisula solidissima) Fishery Under Climate‐Induced Warming on the Mid‐Atlantic Bight Continental Shelf: A Multidecadal Assessment

• DOI: 10.1111/fog.12708
• Publication Date: 2024-11-19T03:34:09Z
• Authors: Molly M. Spencer; Eric N. Powell; John M. Klinck; Daphne M. Munroe; Sarah Borsetti; Andrew M. Scheld; Eileen E. Hofmann; Enrique Curchitser
• Keywords: 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

ABSTRACT The Atlantic surfclam, Spisula solidissima supports a lucrative commercial fishery in the Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) worth roughly $30 million revenue per year. Rapid climate change is expected to modify geographic range of with consequences for surfclam fishery. This study evaluated fishery‐based indicators projected from 2020 through 2095 based on anticipated changes and biomass using Spatially Explicit, agent‐based Fisheries Economics Simulator (SEFES). Simulations generally showed positive trend throughout next three‐quarters 21 st century as clam's continues shift offshore northward along continental shelf. A general decrease fishing mortality rate given present fleet capacity, simultaneous increase catch landings unit effort (LPUE), signaling future potential growth Regionally, forecasts show expanding into deeper waters particularly off New Jersey, Long Island, southern England starting early 2050s, whereas populations Georges Bank Delmarva gradually decline. Trends time spent fishing, catch, LPUE parallel those each region. These results can inform managers business interests that rely this fishery, well other users shelf, provide basis development anticipatory management socio‐ecological economic impacts may result carrying capacity consequent change.