Carbon–Temperature–Water change analysis for peanut production under climate change: a prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate‐Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12412
• Publication Date: 2013-10-12T01:53:05Z
• Authors: Alex C. Ruane; Sonali McDermid; Cynthia Rosenzweig; Guillermo A. Baig...; James W. Jones; Consuelo C. Romero; L. DeWayne Cecil
• Keywords: DSSAT; Representative Concentration Pathways; Mean radiant temperature

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has potential disrupt agricultural sector from local global scales. This article introduces Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative Agricultural Model Intercomparison Improvement (AgMIP) engage a network crop modelers explore impacts climate via investigation responses changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2 ]), temperature, water. As demonstration C3MP protocols enabled analyses, we apply Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut model Henry County, Alabama, evaluate range plausible [CO2 ], temperature changes, precipitation by models out end 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used derive emulators that estimate mean yield coefficient variation seasonal yields across broad conditions, reproducing test simulations with deviations ca. 2% rain-fed conditions. We these statistical investigate how peanuts respond projections various models, time periods, emissions scenarios, finding robust projection modest (<10%) median losses middle century accelerating more severe (>20%) larger uncertainty at under representative pathway (RCP8.5). not substantially altered selection AgMERRA gridded dataset rather than historical observations, differences between Third Fifth Coupled (CMIP3 CMIP5), or use delta method analysis response surface emulator approach.