Can carbon emissions from tropical deforestation drop by 50% in 5 years?

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13153
• Publication Date: 2015-11-30T11:30:49Z
• Authors: Daniel J. Zarin; Nancy L. Harris; Alessandro Baccini; Dmitry Aksenov; Matthew C. Hansen; Claudia Azevedo‐R...; Tasso Azevedo; Belinda A. Margono; Ane C. Alencar; Chris Gabris; Adrienne Allegretti; Peter Potapov; Mary Farina; Wayne S. Walker; Varada S. Shevade; Tatiana V. Loboda; Svetlana Turubanova; Alexandra Tyukavina
• Keywords: Deforestation; Carbon fibers

Halving carbon emissions from tropical deforestation by 2020 could help bring the international community closer to agreed goal of <2 degree increase in global average temperature change and is consistent with a target set last year governments, corporations, indigenous peoples' organizations non-governmental that signed New York Declaration on Forests (NYDF). We assemble refine robust dataset establish 2001-2013 benchmark for annual gross at 2.270 Gt CO2 yr(-1). Brazil did not sign NYDF, yet 2001 2013, ranks first both reductions those - its share total declined peak 69% 2003 low 20% 2012. Indonesia, an NYDF signatory, second highest emitter, peaking 2012 0.362 yr(-1) before declining 0.205 2013. The other 14 country signatories were responsible combined 0.317 , while 86 non-signatories 0.688 outline two scenarios achieving 50% emission reduction 2020, emphasizing critical role need reverse trends increasing many countries that, have largely offset Brazil's reductions. Achieving will therefore be challenging, even though it self-interest community. Conserving rather than cutting down forests requires shifting economic development away dependence natural resource depletion toward recognition human societies capital represent goods services they provide.