Scale‐dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13679
• Publication Date: 2017-03-07T15:42:49Z
• Authors: Carlos Carroll; David R. Roberts; Julia L. Michalak; Joshua J. Lawler; Scott E. Nielsen; Diana Stralberg; Andreas Hamann; Brad H. Mcrae; Tongli Wang
• Keywords: Complementarity (molecular biology); Environmental change

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches planning focused on resilience over a broad range ecological settings across North America evaluated how commonalities in priority identified by different varied with regional context spatial scale. Our results indicate that based environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each priorities spatiotemporal such as velocity. Refugia or velocity were not strongly associated current protected area system, suggesting need for additional measures including protection refugia. Despite inherent uncertainties predicting future climate, we found variation among velocities derived general circulation models emissions pathways was less than suite metrics. To address uncertainty created this variation, planners can combine alternative at single resolution downweight high between Alternately, coarse-resolution be combined fine-resolution order leverage respective strengths two groups tools identification potential macro- microrefugia combination maximize both transient long-term Planners should compare integrate span model complexity scale match physical processes influencing network resilient threats operating multiple scales.