Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15815
• Publication Date: 2021-07-26T15:49:35Z
• Authors: Shuyang Ma; Dan Liu; Yongjun Tian; Caihong Fu; Jianchao Li; Peilong Ju; Peng Sun; Zhenjiang Ye; Yang Liu; Yoshiro Watanabe
• Keywords: Regime shift; Environmental change; Ecological systems theory; Alternative stable state; Ecological resilience

Natural systems can undergo critical transitions, leading to substantial socioeconomic and ecological outcomes. "Ecological resilience" has been proposed describe the capacity of natural absorb external perturbation reorganize while undergoing change so as still retain essentially same function, structure, identity, feedbacks. However, mere application resilience in theoretical research lack quantitative approaches present considerable obstacles for predicting transitions understanding their mechanisms. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) Northwestern Pacific are characterized by great biodiversity productivity, well remarkable warming recent decades. no information is available on LMEs response warming. Therefore, we applied an integrated assessment framework fisheries catch data from seven covering a wide range regions, tropical subarctic, identify assess resilience, reconstruct folded stability landscapes, with specific focus effects The results provide evidence occurrence fold bifurcation hysteresis increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) LMEs. In addition, these show similarities synchronies structure variations forced Both dramatic increases SST small fluctuations at corresponding thresholds may trigger transitions. Ecological decreases when approaching tipping points repainted shift alternative stable states different resilient dynamics. Folded landscapes indicate that responses discontinuous, which be caused reorganization sensitivity changes. Our study clarifies nonlinear anthropogenic provides examples quantifying empirical unprecedented spatial temporal scales.