Ecological and methodological drivers of non‐stationarity in tree growth response to climate

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16470
• Publication Date: 2022-10-06T07:44:46Z
• Authors: Jan Tumajer; Krešimir Begović; Vojtěch Čada; Michal Jenicek; Jelena Lange; Jiří Mašek; Ryszard J. Kaczka; Miloš Rydval; Miroslav Svoboda; Lukáš Vlček; Václav Treml
• Keywords: Species distribution

Radial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented variability could lead non-stationarity, that is, a decoupling responses from over time, potentially inducing biases in reconstructions and projections. Little known about whether what extent species, model type resolution affect the occurrence magnitude non-stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers we compiled tree-ring width chronologies two conifer Picea abies Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites Europe including distribution margins these species as well moderate sites. calibrated four numerical models (linear vs. non-linear, daily monthly resolution) simulate based temperature soil moisture data. Climate-growth were tested independent verification periods quantify their which was assessed bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The degree non-stationarity varied between site climatic models. Chronologies P. sylvestris showed stronger compared with stands high stationarity. Sites signals most affected by sampled at cold dry margins. Moreover, linear exhibited greater monthly-resolved non-linear conclude climate-growth multifactorial phenomenon driven interaction methodological features modeling approach. Given existence multiple frequent recommend temporal rather than stationarity should be considered baseline response for temperate forests.