Interpreting insect declines: seven challenges and a way forward

• DOI: 10.1111/icad.12408
• Publication Date: 2020-03-04T09:14:22Z
• Authors: Raphael K. Didham; Yves Basset; C. Matilda Collins; Simon R. Leather; Nick A. Littlewood; Myles H. M. Menz; Jörg Müller; Laurence Packer; Manu E. Saunders; Karsten Schönrogge; Alan J. A. Stewart; Stephen P. Yanoviak; Christopher Hassall
• Keywords: Citizen Science; Scrutiny; Baseline (sea); Prospectus

Abstract Many insect species are under threat from the anthropogenic drivers of global change. There have been numerous well‐documented examples population declines and extinctions in scientific literature, but recent weaker studies making extreme claims a crisis drawn widespread media coverage brought unprecedented public attention. This spotlight might be double‐edged sword if veracity alarmist decline statements do not stand up to close scrutiny. We identify seven key challenges drawing robust inference about declines: establishment historical baseline, representativeness site selection, robustness time series trend estimation, mitigation detection bias effects, ability account for potential artefacts density dependence, phenological shifts scale‐dependence extrapolation sample abundance population‐level inference. Insect fluctuations complex. Greater care is needed when evaluating evidence trends identifying those trends. present guidelines best‐practise approaches that avoid methodological errors, mitigate biases produce more analyses Despite many existing pitfalls, we forward‐looking prospectus future monitoring, highlighting opportunities creative exploitation baseline data, technological advances sampling novel computational approaches. Entomologists cannot tackle these alone, it only through collaboration with citizen scientists, other research scientists disciplines, data analysts next generation researchers will bridge gap between little bugs big data.