Temporal variation in responses of species to four decades of climate warming

• DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02730.x
• Publication Date: 2012-04-26T14:40:40Z
• Authors: Louise Mair; Chris D. Thomas; Barbara J. Anderson; Richard Fox; Marc Botham; Jane K. Hill
• Keywords: Species distribution

Abstract Many species are expanding at their leading‐edge range boundaries in response to climate warming. Species known respond individualistically change, but there has been little consideration of whether responses consistent over time. We compared 37 southerly distributed British butterflies two study periods, first between 1970–1982 and 1995–1999 then 2005–2009, when mean annual temperature increased regionally by 0.03 °C yr −1 (a significant rate increase) 0.01 nonsignificant respectively. Our might be expected benefit from measured three investigate this; changes margin, distribution area abundance. In general, the were inconsistent that areas during period tended do so again second period, relationship was weak. Changes margins abundance not consistent. addition, only 5/37 showed qualitatively similar all variables time (three declined both periods). Overall rates expansion change significantly greater despite lower warming, perhaps due exploiting climate‐distribution lags remaining earlier, warmer period. However, a decline expansions northwards necessarily accompanied increases and/or Hence, ranges have thinning as they expanded northwards. The idiosyncratic these likely reflect balance climatic habitat drivers changes.