Dynamics of Mara–Serengeti ungulates in relation to land use changes

• DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-7998.2008.00536.x
• Publication Date: 2009-02-10T16:08:29Z
• Authors: J. O. Ogutu; H.‐P. Piepho; H. T. Dublin; N. Bhola; R. S. Reid
• Keywords: Ungulate; Maasai; Poaching; Carnivore

Abstract Animal population dynamics can be driven by changing climatic forcing, shifting habitat conditions, trophic interactions and anthropogenic influences. To understand these influences, we analyzed trends in populations of seven ungulate species counted during 15 years (1989–2003) monthly monitoring using vehicle ground counts the Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. Abundance six declined markedly persistently throughout reserve this period. The declines were contemporaneous with progressive deterioration due to land use pastoral ranches bordering reserve, desiccation rising temperatures, recurrent severe droughts an exceptional ENSO flood 1997–1998. effect was accentuated illicit harvest, competition livestock elevated predation. After factoring out influence rainfall, more sections experiencing greater incursions poaching. significantly correlated increasing number settlements people for five species. Heightened predation following a crash buffalo Syncerus caffer drought 1993 had little support as primary cause declines.