Validation of a Mayo post-operative mortality risk prediction model in Korean cirrhotic patients

• DOI: 10.1111/j.1478-3231.2010.02419.x
• Publication Date: 2010-12-07T08:06:33Z
• Authors: Seung Young Kim; Hyung Joon Yim; Seon Min Park; Jeong Han Kim; Sung Woo Jung; Ji Hoon Kim; Yeon Seok Seo; Jong Eun Yeon; Hong Sik Lee; Sang Woo Lee; Soon Ho Um; Kwan Soo Byun; Jai Hyun Choi; Ho Sang Ryu
• Keywords: Adult; Aged, 80 and over; Liver Cirrhosis; Male; Age Factors; Bilirubin; Middle Aged; 3. Good health; 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; Creatinine; Republic of Korea; Humans; Female; Postoperative Period; Aged; Proportional Hazards Models; Retrospective Studies

Background: Patients with cirrhosis have an increased risk of mortality after surgery. In 2007, a new model was suggested to calculate at specific time points surgery the Mayo clinic. Aims: We investigated risks in Korean cirrhotic patients who underwent various surgeries and applied clinic our study populations. Methods: conducted retrospective review charts 160 surgical procedures under general anaesthesia between January 1996 December 2006 two hospitals. Results: The overall 30-, 90-day 1-year rates were 7.5, 9.4 10.6% respectively. multivariate analysis, Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) score, for end-stage liver disease (MELD) American Society Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification age significantly associated mortality. area receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) from calculated value using as predictor 0.832, 0.803 0.822 respectively, which, different AUROC prediction based on patient's data (P=0.025). addition, mean predicted rate (22.6±12.0%) higher than that observed (8.9±1.4%, P<0.01). Conclusions: CTP score or MELD ASA class found be significant predictors post-operative patients. developed showed good performance However, we tended overestimate mortality, especially 1 year