The robustness of a simple dynamic model of island biodiversity to geological and sea‐level change

• DOI: 10.1111/jbi.14519
• Publication Date: 2022-10-22T02:23:07Z
• Authors: Pedro Santos Neves; Joshua W. Lambert; Luis Valente; Rampal S. Etienne
• Keywords: geodynamics; Colonisation; Archipelago; Continental drift; Insular biogeography; Mainland; Pluvial

Abstract Aim Biodiversity on islands is influenced by geophysical processes and sea‐level fluctuations. Oceanic (never connected to a landmass) are initially vacant with diversity accumulating via colonisation speciation, then declining as shrink. Continental have species upon disconnection from the mainland may transient land‐bridge connections. Theoretical predictions for effects of these rates colonisation, extinction been proposed. However, paleogeographic reconstructions currently unavailable most islands, phylogenetic models overlook island ontogeny, changes, or past landmass We analyse what extent ignoring geodynamics in inference model affects when confronted data simulated geodynamics. Location Simulations oceanic continental islands. Taxa Simulated lineages. Methods extend biogeography simulation DAISIE include: (i) area‐dependent diversification associated ontogeny fluctuations, (ii) biota present separation mainland, (iii) shifts mimic temporary land‐bridges. quantify error geodynamic applying DAISIE's method simulations. Results Robustness dynamic area generally high that separated long time, suggesting it possible obtain reliable results recently frequently connected, robustness low. Main conclusions Under many biogeographic scenarios (oceanic ancient fragments) simple empirically applicable informative. recent connection continent cannot be ignored, requiring new development. Our show insights can obtained absence area.