Development and validation of a novel clinical scoring system for short‐term prediction of death in dogs with acute pancreatitis

• DOI: 10.1111/jvim.15421
• Publication Date: 2019-02-16T05:09:59Z
• Authors: Virginie Fabrès; Olivier Dossin; Clémence Reif; Miguel Campos; Valerie Freiche; Christelle Maurey; Fanny Pilot‐Storck; Loïc Desquilbet; Ghita Benchekroun
• Keywords: Case fatality rate

Background Acute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with a high death rate in dogs, but accurate predictors of early are still lacking. Objectives To develop scoring system for prediction short‐term case fatality dogs AP. Animals One hundred sixty‐nine AP including 138 the training cohort and 31 validation cohort. Methods Multicenter, retrospective study. Survival analysis was used to assess associations (within 30 days after admission). Independent were identified by stepwise selection method score calculation. Results Death within admission 33% Four independent risk factors cohort: presence systemic inflammatory response syndrome, coagulation disorders, increased creatinine ionized hypocalcemia. Canine Pancreatitis Severity (CAPS) developed predict death, integrating these 4 weighted way. A simplified version CAPS (sCAPS) respiratory instead SIRS also assessed. The area under receiver‐operating characteristic curve (AUC) sCAPS scores 0.92 an optimal cutoff 11 (sensitivity, 89%; specificity, 90%) 6 96%; 77%), respectively. validated respective AUC 0.91 0.96. Conclusions Clinical Importance We propose 2 systems that allow