Modelling the distribution of the vector Aedes aegypti in a central Argentine city

• DOI: 10.1111/mve.12323
• Publication Date: 2018-07-20T07:52:02Z
• Authors: E. L. Estallo; F. Sangermano; M. Grech; F. Ludueña‐Almeida; M. Frías‐Cespedes; M. Ainete; W. Almirón; T. Livdahl
• Keywords: PREDICTION; CÓRDOBA; Argentina; Mosquito Vectors; Breeding; Environment; Models, Biological; 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; Aedes; https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6; Animals; Cities; https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1; Demography; RISK; ARGENTINA; Spatial Analysis; MAXENT; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS; 3. Good health; MOSQUITO; ROC Curve; Socioeconomic Factors; Area Under Curve; SDMS; Female; AEDES AEGYPTI

Abstract Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) is an urban mosquito involved in the transmission of numerous viruses, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika. In Argentina, Ae. main vector dengue virus has been several outbreaks regions ranging from northern to central Argentina since 2009. order evaluate areas potential vector‐borne disease city Córdoba, present study aimed identify environmental, socioeconomic demographic factors driving distribution larvae through spatial analysis form species models (SDMs). These elucidate relationships between known occurrences a environmental data with suitable habitats for that consequent risk transmission. The maximum entropy model was able fit training well, average area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) > 0.8, produced fair extrapolation capacity (average test AUC: 0.75). Human population density, distance vegetation water channels were variables predictive suitability area. results this work will be used target surveillance prevention measures, as well management.