Drivers of leaf‐out phenology and their implications for species invasions: insights from Thoreau's Concord

• DOI: 10.1111/nph.12647
• Publication Date: 2013-12-24T09:43:11Z
• Authors: Caroline Polgar; Amanda Gallinat; Richard B. Primack
• Keywords: Cold Temperature; Plant Leaves; 0301 basic medicine; 03 medical and health sciences; Time Factors; Massachusetts; Species Specificity; 13. Climate action; 15. Life on land; Introduced Species

To elucidate climate-driven changes in leaf-out phenology and their implications for species invasions, we observed experimentally manipulated leaf out of invasive native woody plants Concord, MA, USA. Using observations collected by Henry David Thoreau (1852-1860) our own (2009-2013), analyzed timing sensitivity to temperature 43 plant species. We tested winter chilling requirements 50 exposing cut branches warm indoor temperatures (22°C) during the spring 2013. Woody are now leafing an average 18 d earlier than they did 1850s, advancing at a rate 5 ± 1 °C(-1) . Functional groups differ significantly duration require out: shrubs generally have weaker faster laboratory field; trees strongest requirements. Our results suggest that shrub will continue competitive advantage as climate warms, because slower respond warming and, future, may not meet