An integrated population model for a long‐lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods

• DOI: 10.1111/oik.01924
• Publication Date: 2015-02-12T21:47:39Z
• Authors: Aline M. Lee; Eirin M. Bjørkvoll; Brage B. Hansen; Steve D. Albon; Audun Stien; Bernt‐Erik Sæther; Steinar Engen; Vebjørn Veiberg; Leif E. Loe; Vidar Grøtan
• Keywords: Population model; Mark and recapture; Ungulate

We develop an integrated population model for Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus , and demonstrate how this type of can be used to extract more information from the data separate different sources variability in estimates. Our combines individual mark–recapture with counts harvesting within a Bayesian framework, accounts observation error, environmental demographic stochasticity, age structure. From we obtain annual estimates age‐specific size, survival fecundity. The provides structure at finer scale than that found census data, enables us estimate period before calves are first caught marked, i.e. they enter data. modeling framework improved approach studying age‐structured populations imperfectly censused where demography only sample individuals is known. use independent censuses same evaluate obtained model, show it successful correcting types error. Based on our results, suggest allocating resources collection supplementary could improve reliability projections making regular as exhaustive possible. work demonstrates increase amount extracted collections identifying disentangling variation performance size. This represents important step towards increasing predictive ability growth models long‐lived species experiencing changes conditions regimes.