A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam

• DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13802
• Publication Date: 2020-08-27T22:44:43Z
• Authors: Hu Suk Lee; Krishna K. Thakur; Vuong Nghia Bui; Thanh Long Pham; Anh Ngoc Bui; Tung Duy Dao; Vu Thi Thanh; Barbara Wieland
• Keywords: 2. Zero hunger; Stochastic Processes; animal diseases; Swine; Sus scrofa; swine; Original Articles; 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences; African Swine Fever Virus; 3. Good health; 0403 veterinary science; Vietnam; african swine fever; Communicable Disease Control; Animals; Computer Simulation; African Swine Fever

The main objectives of this study were to model various scenarios of African swine fever (ASF) virus transmission among farms in Vietnam and to evaluate the impact of control strategies using North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). A total of 7,882 pig farms in the Red River Delta (RRD) region were obtained from the General Statistics Office, and then, random points corresponding to the number of farms in each province were generated as exact farm locations were not available. A total of 10 models were developed, including movement control scenarios. In addition, we conducted sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of indirect contact transmission probability (TP). Overall, the indirect contact exhibited an important role in transmitting the ASF virus. In order to minimize ASF transmission between farms, we found that movement restriction needed to reach a certain level (approximately between 50% and 75%) and that the restriction had to be applied in a timely manner. This study offers valuable insight into how ASF virus can be transmitted via direct and indirect contact and controlled among farms under the various simulation scenarios. Our results suggest that the enforcement of movement restriction was an effective control measure as soon as the outbreaks were reported. In addition, this study provided evidence that high standards of biosecurity can contribute to the reduction of disease spread.