Variability and Predictability of Performance Times of Elite Cross-Country Skiers

• DOI: 10.1123/ijspp.2012-0382
• Publication Date: 2014-01-09T16:17:23Z
• Authors: Matt Spencer; Thomas Losnegard; Jostein Hallén; Will G. Hopkins
• Keywords: Predictability; Sprint; Elite Athletes; Cross country

Analyses of elite competitive performance provide useful information for research and practical applications.Here the authors analyze times cross-country skiers at international competitions (World Cup, World Championship, Olympics) in classical free styles women's men's distance sprint events, each with a total 410-569 athletes competing 1-44 races 15-25 venues from seasons 2002 to 2011.A linear mixed model race event provided estimates within-athlete race-to-race variability expressed as coefficient variation (CV) after adjustment fixed or random effects snow conditions, altitude, length, competition terrain.Within-athlete was similar men women over various events all (CV 1.5-1.8%) annual top-10 (1.1-1.4%). Observed conditions altitude on mean time were substantial (~2%) but mostly unclear, owing large terrain 4-10% analyses). Predictability extremely high (intraclass correlations .90-.96) only trivial poor (men .00-.03, .03-.35).The top-ranked is that other endurance athletes. Estimates smallest worthwhile enhancement (0.3× variability) will help researchers practitioners evaluate strategies affecting skiers.