Unraveling forced responses of extreme El Niño variability over the Holocene

• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm4313
• Publication Date: 2022-03-04T18:58:27Z
• Authors: Allison E. Lawman; Pedro N. Di Nezio; Judson W. Partin; Sylvia G. Dee; Kaustubh Thirumalai; Terrence M. Quinn
• Keywords: Multivariate ENSO index; Proxy (statistics); Forcing (mathematics)

Uncertainty surrounding the future response of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability to anthropogenic warming necessitates study past ENSO sensitivity substantial climate forcings over geological history. Here, we focus on Holocene epoch and show that amplitude frequency intensified this period, driven by an increase in extreme Niño events. Our combines new model simulations, advances coral proxy system modeling, data from central tropical Pacific. Although diverges observed regarding exact magnitude change, both indicate modern variance eclipsed paleo-estimates Holocene, albeit against backdrop wide-ranging natural variability. Toward further constraining paleo-ENSO, our work underscores need for multimodel investigations additional intervals alongside more periods with larger forcing. findings implicate events as important rectifier mean intensity.