Effects of culling vampire bats on the spatial spread and spillover of rabies virus

• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add7437
• Publication Date: 2023-03-22T20:54:02Z
• Authors: Mafalda Viana; Julio A. Benavides; Alice Broos; Darcy Ibañez Loayza; Ruby Niño; Jordan Bone; Ana da Silva Filipe; Richard Orton; William Valderram...; Jason Matthiopoulos; Daniel G. Streicker
• Keywords: Culling; Desmodus rotundus; Spatial epidemiology

Controlling pathogen circulation in wildlife reservoirs is notoriously challenging. In Latin America, vampire bats have been culled for decades hopes of mitigating lethal rabies infections humans and livestock. Whether culls reduce or exacerbate transmission remains controversial. Using Bayesian state-space models, we show that a 2-year, spatially extensive bat cull an area exceptional incidence Peru failed to spillover livestock, despite reducing population density. Viral whole genome sequencing phylogeographic analyses further demonstrated culling before virus arrival slowed viral spatial spread, but reactive accelerated suggesting culling-induced changes dispersal promoted invasions. Our findings question the core assumptions density-dependent localized maintenance underlie as prevention strategy provide epidemiological evolutionary framework understand outcomes interventions complex disease systems.