Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event

• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adi2714
• Publication Date: 2023-11-29T19:00:24Z
• Authors: Jun Wang; Yang Chen; Simon F. B. Tett; Dáithí Stone; Ji Nie; Jinming Feng; Zhongwei Yan; Panmao Zhai; Quansheng Ge
• Keywords: Preparedness

Attribution of compound events informs preparedness for emerging hazards with disproportionate impacts. However, the task remains challenging because space-time interactions among extremes and uncertain dynamic changes are not satisfactorily addressed in well-established attribution framework. For attributing 2020 record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event China, we conduct a storyline analysis by designing simulation experiments via weather forecast model, quantifying component-based attributable changes, comparing historical flow analogs. We quantify that given large-scale circulation, anthropogenic influence to date has exacerbated extreme Mei-yu rainfall mid-lower reaches Yangtze River during June–July ~6.5% warmed co-occurring seasonal heat South China ~1°C. Our projections show further intensification end this century, moderate emissions making totals ~14% larger season ~2.1°C warmer than status.