Potential climate predictability of renewable energy supply and demand for Texas given the ENSO hidden state

• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado3517
• Publication Date: 2024-11-01T17:59:14Z
• Authors: Mengjie Zhang; Lei Yan; Yash Amonkar; Adam Nayak; Upmanu Lall
• Keywords: Predictability

Climate variability influences renewable electricity supply and demand hence system reliability. Using the hidden states of sea surface temperature tropical Pacific Ocean that reflect El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics is objectively identified by a nonhomogeneous Markov model, we provide first example potential predictability monthly wind solar energy heating cooling for 1 to 6 months ahead Texas, United States, region has high penetration susceptible disruption climate-driven supply-demand imbalances. We find statistically significant oversupply or undersupply anomalous heating/cooling depending on ENSO state calendar month. Implications financial securitization application forecasts are discussed.