Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts

• DOI: 10.1126/science.1087143
• Publication Date: 2003-08-01T03:27:13Z
• Authors: Mark P. Baldwin; David B. Stephenson; David W. J. Thomp...; Timothy J. Dunkerton; Andrew J. Charlton; Alan O'Neill
• Keywords: 550; 13. Climate action; 551; 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.