Predictive Thresholds for Plague in Kazakhstan

• DOI: 10.1126/science.1095854
• Publication Date: 2004-04-29T20:08:04Z
• Authors: Stephen Davis; Mike Begon; Luc De Bruyn; Vladimir S. Ageyev; Nikolay L. Klasso...; Sergey B. Pole; Hildegunn Viljugrein; Nils Chr. Stenseth; Herwig Leirs
• Keywords: Yersinia pestis; plague; Yersiniosis; Gerbil

In Kazakhstan and elsewhere in central Asia, the bacterium Yersinia pestis circulates natural populations of gerbils, which are source human cases bubonic plague. Our analysis field data collected between 1955 1996 shows that plague invades, fades out, reinvades response to fluctuations abundance its main reservoir host, great gerbil ( Rhombomys opimus ). This is a rare empirical example two types thresholds for infectious disease—invasion persistence— operating single wildlife population. We parameterized predictive models should reduce costs surveillance Asia thereby encourage continuance.