Stability Predicts Genetic Diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Hotspot

• DOI: 10.1126/science.1166955
• Publication Date: 2009-02-07T04:02:12Z
• Authors: Ana Carolina Carn...; Michael J. Hickerson; Célio F. B. Haddad; Miguel T. Rodrigues; Craig Moritz
• Keywords: Biodiversity hotspot; Endemism; Hotspot (geology); Atlantic forest; Environmental niche modelling; Refugium (fishkeeping)

Biodiversity hotspots, representing regions with high species endemism and conservation threat, have been mapped globally. Yet, biodiversity distribution data from within hotspots are too sparse for effective in the face of rapid environmental change. Using frogs as indicators, ecological niche models under paleoclimates, simultaneous Bayesian analyses multispecies molecular data, we compare alternative hypotheses assemblage-scale response to late Quaternary climate This reveals a hotspot Brazilian Atlantic forest hotspot. We show that southern was climatically unstable relative central region, which served large climatic refugium neotropical Pleistocene. sets new priorities Brazil establishes validated approach prediction other understudied, species-rich regions.