The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena

• DOI: 10.1126/science.1245200
• Publication Date: 2013-12-12T19:16:18Z
• Authors: Dirk Brockmann; Dirk Helbing
• Keywords: Epidemic model; Spatial contextual awareness

The global spread of epidemics, rumors, opinions, and innovations are complex, network-driven dynamic processes. combined multiscale nature intrinsic heterogeneity the underlying networks make it difficult to develop an intuitive understanding these processes, distinguish relevant from peripheral factors, predict their time course, locate origin. However, we show that complex spatiotemporal patterns can be reduced surprisingly simple, homogeneous wave propagation patterns, if conventional geographic distance is replaced by a probabilistically motivated effective distance. In context global, air-traffic-mediated reliably predicts disease arrival times. Even epidemiological parameters unknown, method still deliver relative approach also identify spatial origin spreading processes successfully applied data worldwide 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic 2003 SARS epidemic.