Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures

• DOI: 10.1126/science.1257856
• Publication Date: 2015-02-27T10:21:37Z
• Authors: Byron A. Steinman; Michael E. Mann; Sonya K. Miller
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; 16. Peace & justice; 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections future temperature change and led to a vigorous debate over whether this is result naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external Earth's system. To address these issues, we applied semi-empirical approach that combines observations simulations estimate Atlantic- Pacific-based multidecadal (termed "AMO" "PMO," respectively). Using method, AMO PMO are found explain large proportion Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between modest positive peak substantially negative-trending seen produce "false pause" past decade.