A human-driven decline in global burned area

• DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4108
• Publication Date: 2017-07-12T21:45:10Z
• Authors: N. Andela; D. C. Morton; L. Giglio; Y. Chen; G. R. van der Werf; P. S. Kasibhatla; R. S. DeFries; G. J. Collatz; S. Hantson; S. Kloster; D. Bachelet; M. Forrest; G. Lasslop; F. Li; S. Mangeon; J. R. Melton; C. Yue; J. T. Randerson
• Keywords: Global Change; Sink (geography); Fire regime; Carbon sink

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability was largest savannas. Agricultural expansion intensification were primary drivers of declining activity. Fewer smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, increased magnitude terrestrial carbon sink. models unable to reproduce pattern observed declines, suggesting they may overestimate emissions future projections. Using economic demographic variables, developed a conceptual model predicting human-dominated landscapes.