The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

• DOI: 10.1126/science.aba9757
• Publication Date: 2020-03-06T22:05:45Z
• Authors: Matteo Chinazzi; Jessica T. Davis; Marco Ajelli; Corrado Gioannini; Maria Litvinova; Stefano Merler; Ana Pastore y Pio...; Kunpeng Mu; Luca Rossi; Kaiyuan Sun; Cécile Viboud; Xinyue Xiong; Hongjie Yu; M. Elizabeth Hall...; Ira M. Longini; Alessandro Vespig...
• Keywords: Pandemic; Isolation; Coronavirus; Metapopulation; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation transmission model to project impact travel limitations on national and international epidemic. The is calibrated basis internationally reported cases shows that, at start ban from Wuhan 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. quarantine delayed overall epidemic progression only 3 5 days China but more marked effect scale, where case importations were reduced nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% restrictions modestly affect trajectory unless combined with 50% or higher reduction community.