The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

• DOI: 10.1126/science.aba9757
• Publication Date: 2020-03-06T22:05:45Z
• Authors: Matteo Chinazzi; Jessica T. Davis; Marco Ajelli; Corrado Gioannini; Maria Litvinova; Stefano Merler; Ana Pastore y Pio...; Kunpeng Mu; Luca Rossi; Kaiyuan Sun; Cécile Viboud; Xinyue Xiong; Hongjie Yu; M. Elizabeth Hall...; Ira M. Longini; Alessandro Vespig...
• Keywords: China; Travel; Internationality; Models, Statistical; Multidisciplinary; 330; SARS-CoV-2; Incidence; 380; Pneumonia, Viral; coronavirus; COVID-19; Disease Outbreaks; 3. Good health; Betacoronavirus; Communicable Diseases, Imported; Quarantine; Humans; Computer Simulation; Covid-19; Coronavirus Infections; Pandemics; Research Articles

Outbreak to pandemic

In response to global dispersion of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), quarantine measures have been implemented around the world. To understand how travel and quarantine influence the dynamics of the spread of this novel human virus, Chinazzi et al. applied a global metapopulation disease transmission model to epidemiological data from China. They concluded that the travel quarantine introduced in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 only delayed epidemic progression by 3 to 5 days within China, but international travel restrictions did help to slow spread elsewhere in the world until mid-February. Their results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic.

Science , this issue p. 395