Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

• DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5793
• Publication Date: 2020-04-14T19:15:13Z
• Authors: Stephen M. Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Edward Goldstein; Yonatan H. Grad; Marc Lipsitch
• Keywords: 0301 basic medicine; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Multidisciplinary; SARS-CoV-2; Pneumonia, Viral; 610; COVID-19; Models, Biological; 620; Disease Outbreaks; 3. Good health; Coronavirus OC43, Human; Betacoronavirus; 03 medical and health sciences; Disease Transmission, Infectious; Humans; Seasons; Coronavirus Infections; Pandemics; SARS-CoV-2 - Model of transmission; Reports

What happens next?

Four months into the severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, we still do not know enough about postrecovery immune protection and environmental and seasonal influences on transmission to predict transmission dynamics accurately. However, we do know that humans are seasonally afflicted by other, less severe coronaviruses. Kissler et al. used existing data to build a deterministic model of multiyear interactions between existing coronaviruses, with a focus on the United States, and used this to project the potential epidemic dynamics and pressures on critical care capacity over the next 5 years. The long-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 strongly depends on immune responses and immune cross-reactions between the coronaviruses, as well as the timing of introduction of the new virus into a population. One scenario is that a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 could occur as far into the future as 2025.

Science , this issue p. 860