Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes

• DOI: 10.1126/science.abg8663
• Publication Date: 2021-03-09T16:10:21Z
• Authors: Chadi M. Saad-Roy; Sinead E. Morris; C. Jessica E. Met...; Michael J. Mina; Rachel E. Baker; Jeremy Farrar; Edward C. Holmes; Oliver G. Pybus; Andrea L. Graham; Simon A. Levin; Bryan T. Grenfell; Caroline E. Wagner
• Keywords: Herd Immunity; Economic shortage

Given vaccine dose shortages and logistical challenges, various deployment strategies are being proposed to increase population immunity levels severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Two critical issues arise: How timing of delivery the second will affect infection dynamics how it prospects for evolution viral immune escape via a buildup partially individuals. Both hinge on robustness response elicited by single as compared with natural two-dose immunity. Building an existing immuno-epidemiological model, we find that in short term, focusing one generally decreases infections, but longer-term outcomes depend this relative robustness. We then explore three scenarios selection one-dose policy may potential antigenic under certain conditions partial highlight need test loads quantify responses after ramp up vaccination efforts globally.