Adaptation and gene flow are insufficient to rescue a montane plant under climate change

• DOI: 10.1126/science.adr1010
• Publication Date: 2025-05-20T21:16:23Z
• Authors: Jill T. Anderson; Megan L. DeMarche; Derek A. Denney; Ian Breckheimer; James Santangelo; Susana M. Wadgymar
• Keywords: Ecotype; Local adaptation; Persistence (discontinuity); Evolutionary Dynamics

Climate change increasingly drives local population dynamics, shifts geographic distributions, and threatens persistence. Gene flow rapid adaptation could rescue declining populations yet are seldom integrated into forecasts. We modeled eco-evolutionary dynamics under preindustrial, contemporary, projected climates using up to 9 years of fitness data from 102,272 transplants (115 source populations) Boechera stricta in five common gardens. endangers locally adapted reduces genotypic variation long-term growth rate, suggesting limited adaptive potential. Upslope migration stabilize high-elevation preserve low-elevation ecotypes, but unassisted gene with genomic is too spatially restricted. Species distribution models failed capture current likely overestimate persistence intermediate emissions scenarios, highlighting the importance modeling evolutionary processes.