Modelling permafrost distribution using the temperature at top of permafrost model in the boreal forest environment of Whatì, NT

• DOI: 10.1139/as-2023-0010
• Publication Date: 2024-03-08T21:34:24Z
• Authors: Scott Vegter; Philip P. Bonnave...; Seamus Daly; Will Kochtitzky
• Keywords: Environmental sciences; TTOP; boreal; Environmental engineering; GE1-350; TA170-171; forest fire; permafrost

Current permafrost models in Canadian boreal forests are generally of low spatial resolution as they cover regional or continental scales. This study aims to understand the viability creating a temperature at top (TTOP) model on local scale wetland environment Whatì, Northwest Territories from short-term field-collected data. The utilizes independent variables vegetation, topographic position index, and elevation, with dependent being ground surface collected 60 nodes 1.5 m air 10 stations. In doing this, investigates relationship vegetation disturbance have distribution. predicts that 31% is underlain by permafrost, based mean annual TTOP <0 °C. shows an accuracy 62.5% when compared cryotic assessment sites (CAS). Most inaccuracies, showing limitations model, came peat plateaus had been burned most recent forest fire 2014. These resulted out-of-equilibrium climatic conditions cannot handle well. Commonly, mapping places Whatì extensive discontinuous zone, estimating between 50% 90% permafrost. climatically driven calibrated CAS can be used illustrate heterogeneity data environments. However, this approach likely underestimates extent perhaps not best-suited modelling choice for near-surface which currently out equilibrium current climate.