A Knowledge-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Support System Encompassing Cascading Effects for Disaster Management

• DOI: 10.1142/s021962201850030x
• Publication Date: 2018-05-16T02:22:08Z
• Authors: Brunella Caroleo; Enrico Palumbo; Michele Osella; Antonio Lotito; Giuseppe Rizzo; Enrico Ferro; Antonio Attanasio; Silvia Chiusano; Giulio Zuccaro; Mattia Leone; Daniela De Gregorio
• Keywords: Preparedness; Decision maker

This paper describes a knowledge-based decision support system (KB-DSS) to improve the preparedness of crisis situations induced by natural and technological hazards. The proposed KB-DSS aims manage potential cascading effects generated triggering hazard assessing possible event time histories based on interconnected probabilistic simulation models. From methodological point view, model two Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) algorithms follows effect model. combination allows maker in comparing set mitigation strategies basis their expected impacts his priorities. algorithm is an ensemble approach, which combines decisions over array impact scenarios, instead only relying average scenario. An application case reactivation Nea Kameni volcano Santorini presented show how architecture could be applied real case. methodology supports emergency planners making best supporting them also choice timing for intervention.