Challenges in assessing seismic hazard in intraplate Europe

• DOI: 10.1144/sp432.7
• Publication Date: 2015-11-05T03:13:46Z
• Authors: Seth Stein; Mian Liu; Thierry Camelbeeck; Miguel Merino; Angela Landgraf; Esther Hintersberger; Simon Kübler
• Keywords: ddc:550; 13. Climate action; Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie; 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Abstract Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earthquakes extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations – primarily from North America, China Australia usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental historical of the past c. 1000 years, as well some data active faults. This time span probably fails capture typical large-event recurrence intervals order tens thousands years. Palaeoseismology helps lengthen observation window, but preferentially produces in regions suspected seismically active. Thus expected maximum magnitudes future fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, likely occur unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise considering hazards posed low-probability events both heavily populated areas critical facilities. For example, variations (and thus assumed hazard) along Rhine Graben a result short sampling or they real? In addition better with new models, it important recognize communicate uncertainties estimates. The more users know about how much confidence place maps, effectively maps can used.