Assessing tsunami hazard using heterogeneous slip models in the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia

• DOI: 10.1144/sp441.3
• Publication Date: 2016-06-03T01:51:31Z
• Authors: Jonathan D. Griffin; Ignatius R. Prana...; Widjo Kongko; Afif Haunan; Rahayu Robiana; Victoria Miller; Gareth Davies; Nick Horspool; Imun Maemunah; Wisnu B. Widjaja; Danny H. Natawidjaja; Hamzah Latief
• Keywords: 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Abstract Tsunami hazard maps are generated for the coastline of Mentawai Islands, West Sumatra, Indonesia, to support evacuation and disaster response planning. A random heterogeneous slip generator is used forward model a suite earthquake rupture scenarios on Segment Sunda Subduction Zone. Up 1000 models that fit constraints provided by coral geodetic records coseismic vertical deformation from major earthquakes in 1797, 1833 2007 inundation define maximum zone envelopes all these scenarios. Comparison with single-scenario assessments developed experts agreed through scientific consensus shows there value modelling order obtain more robust conservative estimate potential inundated areas. Although both presented here based assumptions about characteristics future events using knowledge past events, sampling range plausible outcomes we gain which areas may be during tsunami within bounds applied.