A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

• DOI: 10.1144/sp456.5
• Publication Date: 2017-02-24T01:10:42Z
• Authors: Gareth Davies; Jonathan Griffin; Finn Løvholt; Sylfest Glimsdal; Carl Harbitz; Hong Kie Thio; Stefano Lorito; Roberto Basili; Jacopo Selva; Eric Geist; Maria Ana Baptista
• Keywords: 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Abstract Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage built environment and critical infrastructure, economic losses. A sound understanding tsunami hazard is required underpin management these risks, while assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent support international disaster risk reduction efforts, can serve as a reference for studies. This study presents global-scale probabilistic assessment (PTHA), extending previous based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources considered, they represent about 80% recorded damaging events. Globally extensive estimates run-up height derived various exceedance rates, associated uncertainties quantified. Epistemic in rates large earthquakes often lead run-up. Deviations between modelled event observations quantified, found be larger than suggested Accounting deviations PTHA important, it leads pronounced increase predicted given rate.