Observed and Modeled Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon over the Historical Period*

• DOI: 10.1175/2010jcli3374.1
• Publication Date: 2010-05-19T21:48:08Z
• Authors: Fangxing Fan; Michael E. Mann; Sukyoung Lee; Jenni L. Evans
• Keywords: Forcing (mathematics); Ensemble average

Abstract The behavior in the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) was analyzed Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) multimodel historical (20c3m) simulations and modern observational reanalysis data. CMIP3 capture observed trend of weakening SASM circulation over past half century, but are unable to reproduce magnitude trend. While observations indicate a slight decrease SASM-related precipitation, on average very increase, albeit with large intermodel intramodel variabilities. negative relationship between ENSO. this recent decades, which has been attributed some studies anthropogenic forcing, appears be well within variability ensemble. For models, distinct realizations both strengthening trends that larger than