Advances in the Prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S Forecast Systems

• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0130.1
• Publication Date: 2022-02-11T15:08:11Z
• Authors: Cristiana Stan; Cheng Zheng; Edmund Kar-Man Chang; Daniela I. V. Dom...; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Andrea M. Jenney; Hyemi Kim; Young-Kwon Lim; Hai Lin; Andrew Robertson; Chen Schwartz; Frederic Vitart; Jiabao Wang; Priyanka Yadav
• Keywords: Teleconnection; Madden–Julian oscillation; Middle latitudes

Abstract This study evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems to represent and predict teleconnections Madden–Julian oscillation their effects on weather in terms midlatitude patterns North Atlantic tropical cyclones. evaluation forecast applies novel diagnostics developed track along preferred pathways troposphere stratosphere, measure global regional responses induced by across both Northern Southern Hemispheres. Results this will help modeling community understand what extent potential S2S time scales is achieved current generation systems, while informing where focus further development efforts. The findings also provide impact modelers decision-makers with a better understanding predictions related MJO teleconnections.