Defining and Predicting Heat Waves in Bangladesh

• DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-17-0035.1
• Publication Date: 2017-08-02T17:04:54Z
• Authors: Hannah Nissan; Katrin Burkart; Erin Coughlan de ...; Maarten Van Aalst; Simon Mason
• Keywords: Heat wave; Preparedness; Predictability; Extreme heat

Abstract This paper proposes a heat-wave definition for Bangladesh that could be used to trigger preparedness measures in heat early warning system (HEWS) and explores the climate mechanisms associated with waves. A HEWS requires of waves is both related human health outcomes forecastable. No such has been developed Bangladesh. Using generalized additive regression model, proposed elevated minimum maximum daily temperatures over 95th percentile 3 consecutive days, confirming importance nighttime conditions impacts. By this definition, death rates increase by about 20% during waves; result can as an argument public-health interventions prevent heat-related deaths. Furthermore, predictability these exists from weather seasonal time scales, offering opportunities range measures. Heat are absence normal premonsoonal rainfall brought anomalously strong low-level westerly winds weak southerlies, detectable up approximately 10 days advance. circulation pattern occurs background drier-than-normal conditions, below-average soil moisture precipitation throughout season April June. Low increases odds occurrence 10–30 indicating subseasonal forecasts risk may possible monitoring soil-moisture conditions.