Assessing Hurricane Rainfall Mechanisms Using a Physics-Based Model: Hurricanes Isabel (2003) and Irene (2011)

• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-17-0264.1
• Publication Date: 2018-04-27T16:24:58Z
• Authors: Ping Lu; Ning Lin; Kerry Emanuel; Daniel Chavas; James Smith
• Keywords: Convergence zone

Abstract We examine a recently developed physics-based tropical cyclone rainfall (TCR) model and apply it to assess the mechanisms that dominate magnitude spatial distribution of TC rainfall, with Hurricanes Isabel (2003) Irene (2011) as study cases. evaluate TCR using Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations. TCR-generated fields for two storms compare well WRF estimates in terms both azimuthal mean distributions. When coupled hydrologic model, generates flood peaks over Delaware River basin accurately WRF. accounts four major mechanisms: surface frictional convergence, vortex stretching, interaction storm topography, large-scale baroclinity. show these affected pattern differently Irene. Frictional convergence is dominant factor, while other are also significant. The depends on boundary layer formulation, which relatively simple may require calibration parameters. Furthermore, we find strongly dependent temporal variation wind field, mediated by physical represented TCR. various analytical models, generally captures distribution, Holland performing best. Given its high computational efficiency, can be an hydrological climatology generate large numbers synthetic events risk associated inland flooding.