Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00415.1
• Publication Date: 2011-11-28T18:15:25Z
• Authors: Hiroyuki Murakami; Yuqing Wang; Hiromasa Yoshimura; Ryo Mizuta; Masato Sugi; Eiki Shindo; Yukimasa Adachi; Seiji Yukimoto; Masahiro Hosaka; Shoji Kusunoki; Tomoaki Ose; Akio Kitoh
• Keywords: Atmospheric models; Representative Concentration Pathways

New versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) atmospheric general circulation models (MRI-AGCM version 3.2) have been developed used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Compared with previous (version 3.1), 3.2 yields a more realistic simulation present-day (1979–2003) global distribution TCs. Moreover, 20-km-mesh model is able simulate extremely intense TCs (categories 4 5), which first time climate has such through multidecadal simulation. Future (2075–99) projections under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario are conducted using 3.1 3.2, showing consistent decreases number globally both hemispheres as warms. Although projected basin-scale TC numbers show some differences between two versions, frequency occurrence shows decrease western part North Pacific (WNP) South Ocean (SPO), while it marked increase central Pacific. Both project globally; however, degree smaller than 3.1. This difference arises partly because projects pronounced mean intensity SPO. The northward shift most (category 5) WNP, indicating an increasing for catastrophic damage due this region.