Storm-Track Activity in IPCC AR4/CMIP3 Model Simulations

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00707.1
• Publication Date: 2012-06-30T14:27:16Z
• Authors: Edmund K. M. Chang; Yanjuan Guo; Xiaoming Xia; Minghua Zheng
• Keywords: Storm track; Middle latitudes

Abstract The climatological storm-track activity simulated by 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)/phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models is compared to that in interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). Nearly half show significant biases amplitude: four simulate storm tracks are either significantly (>20%) too strong or weak both hemispheres, while other have interhemispheric ratios biased over 10%. Consistent with previous studies, amplitude found be negatively correlated grid spacing. ratio highly mean available potential energy, and this some model simulations due midlatitude temperature gradients. In terms geographical pattern, most CMIP3 exhibit an equatorward bias hemispheres. For seasonal cycle, can capture migration strengthening during cool season, but cycle. Possible implications climatology been investigated. tend larger percentage changes amplitudes Under global warming, for NH, project whereas, SH, large latitude poleward shifts. Preliminary results suggest CMIP5 projections also share these behaviors.