Is an Epic Pluvial Masking the Water Insecurity of the Greater New York City Region?*,+

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00723.1
• Publication Date: 2012-08-09T13:24:31Z
• Authors: Neil Pederson; Andrew R. Bell; Edward R. Cook; Upmanu Lall; Naresh Devineni; Richard Seager; Keith Eggleston; Kevin P. Vranes
• Keywords: Pluvial

Abstract Six water emergencies have occurred since 1981 for the New York City (NYC) region despite following: 1) its perhumid climate, 2) substantial conservation of 1979, and 3) meteorological data showing little severe or extreme drought 1970. This study reconstructs 472 years moisture availability NYC watershed to place these in long-term hydroclimatic context. Using nested reconstruction techniques, 32 tree-ring chronologies comprised 12 species account up 66.2% average May–August Palmer severity index. Verification statistics indicate good statistical skill from 1531 2003. The use multiple tree species, including rarely used that can sometimes occur on mesic sites like Liriodendron tulipifera, Betula lenta, Carya spp., seems aid skill. Importantly, captures pluvial events instrumental record nearly as well is significantly correlated precipitation over much northeastern United States. While mid-1960s a context new reconstruction, experienced repeated droughts similar intensity, but greater duration during sixteenth seventeenth centuries. full reveals trend toward more conditions ca. 1800 accentuated by an unprecedented 43-yr event continues through 2011. In current pluvial, decreasing usage, increasing extra-urban pressures, it appears supply system could be severely stressed if boom shifts regimes