CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00589.1
• Publication Date: 2015-04-06T13:49:59Z
• Authors: Elizabeth A. Barnes; Lorenzo M. Polvani
• Keywords: Middle latitudes; Arctic dipole anomaly; Arctic oscillation; Atmospheric Circulation; Forcing (mathematics)

Abstract Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of region compared to rest globe, will cause changes in midlatitude weather over twenty-first century. This study exploits recently completed phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examines 27 state-of-the-art climate models determine if their projected circulation are consistent with impact amplification North America Atlantic. Under largest future greenhouse forcing (RCP8.5), it is found every model, season, exhibits by 2100. At same time, responses either opposite sign those or too widely spread among discern any robust change. However, a few seasons for some metrics examined, correlations between model changes. Therefore, while CMIP5 offer evidence may be able modulate aspects response seasons, analysis herein leads conclusion net unlikely determined solely—or even primarily—by according sequence events hypothesized.