Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-15-0452.1
• Publication Date: 2016-04-27T17:38:21Z
• Authors: Siegfried D. Schu...; Ronald E. Stewart; Hailan Wang; Mathew Barlow; Ernesto H. Berbery; Wenju Cai; Martin P. Hoerling; Krishna K. Kaniki...; Randal D. Koster; Bradfield Lyon; Annarita Mariotti; Carlos R. Mechoso; Omar V. Müller; Belen Rodriguez-F...; Richard Seager; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Lixia Zhang; Tianjun Zhou
• Keywords: Predictability

Abstract Drought affects virtually every region of the world, and potential shifts in its character a changing climate are major concern. This article presents synthesis current understanding meteorological drought, with focus on large-scale controls precipitation afforded by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land feedbacks, radiative forcings. The is primarily based regionally focused articles submitted to Global Information System (GDIS) collection together new results from suite atmospheric general circulation model experiments intended integrate those studies into coherent view drought worldwide. On interannual time scales, preeminence ENSO as driver throughout much Americas, eastern Asia, Australia, Maritime Continent now well established, whereas other regions (e.g., Europe, Africa, India), response more ephemeral or nonexistent. Northern Eurasia, central Canada stand out few SST-forced impacts scales. Decadal changes SST appear be factor occurrence long-term highlighted apparent late 1990s “climate shifts” Pacific Atlantic SST. Key remaining research challenges include (i) better quantification unforced forced variability land–atmosphere (ii) physical basis for leading modes their predictability, (iii) relative contributions internal decadal change drought.